SIDC Ursigram

:Issued: 2023 Sep 30 1231 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 30930
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 30 Sep 2023, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST 
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 30 Sep 2023  10CM FLUX: 160 / AP: 015
PREDICTIONS FOR 01 Oct 2023  10CM FLUX: 160 / AP: 016
PREDICTIONS FOR 02 Oct 2023  10CM FLUX: 160 / AP: 014

Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity over the past 24
hours was at low levels. The largest flare was a C9.6-flare, with peak time
11:57 UTC on September 30, associated with a yet unnumbered active region
which is rotating over the east limb in the northern hemisphere and the
second largest flare was a C8-flare, with peak time 06:00 UTC on September
30 which was associated with NOAA AR 3445. Both of these regions produced
most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. There are currently 6
numbered active regions on the visible disk, NOAA AR 3449 (beta-gamma) and
NOAA AR 3450 (beta-gamma) have both grown in size, all other regions have
simple alpha or beta magnetic field configurations. The solar flaring
activity is likely to be at low levels over the coming days with C-class
flares expected, M-class flares possible and a low chance for isolated
X-class flaring.

Coronal mass ejections: No Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the
last 24 hours. A CME was seen erupting towards the north-east in LASCO-C2
data from 04:44 UTC on September 30 this CME is determined to be back-sided
and is not expected to impact the Earth.

Coronal holes: A positive polarity coronal hole has passed the central
meridian in the northern hemisphere. Another positive polarity coronal hole
is starting to pass the central meridian at the equator.

Solar wind: In the last 24 hours, the interplanetary magnetic field
fluctuated between 5 nT and 8 nT. The Bz fluctuated between positive and
negative values with a minimum value of – 6 nT. The solar wind speed had
values varying between 388 km/s and 487 km/s. The phi-angle was mainly in
the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). Slow solar wind
conditions are expected in the next 24 hours with a possible high speed
stream influence from late on September 30, associated with the positive
polarity coronal hole that began to cross the central meridian on September
27.

Geomagnetism: The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were active
globally (Kp 4) and locally (K Bel 4). Quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected in the next 24 hours with active conditions possible from October
1.

Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background
level over the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24
hours.

Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by
GOES-16 went above the 1000 pfu threshold value between 10:55 UTC and 02:50
UTC on September 30. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to
increase above the threshold again in the next 24 hours.
The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to remain
at moderate levels in the next 24 hours.





Zdroj : SIDC Ursigram





Předpověď sluneční aktivity pro období : September 29 - October 05, 2023

Zdroj : http://www.asu.cas.cz/~sunwatch




Poslední fotografie ze SOHO / SDO:



Různé barvy snímků prozrazují odlišné vlnové délky - každá
vlnová délka je vyzařována plynem o určité teplotě: oranžová: 80 000 °C,
modrá: 1 000 000 °C, zelená: 1 500 000 °C, hnědá: 2 500 000 °C.

  

    




      He II/Si XI 30,4 nm

      80 000 °C

      EIT 304

    
    





      Fe IX/X 17,1 nm

      1 000 000 °C

      EIT 171

    
    





      Fe XII 19,5 nm

      1 500 000 °C

      EIT 195

    
    





      Fe XV 28,4 nm

      2 500 000 °C

      EIT 284

    
  
  

    




SDO/HMI Continuum


    





SDO/HMI Magnetogram


    





LASCO C2


    




LASCO C3

  










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