SIDC Ursigram

:Issued: 2023 May 28 1259 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 30528
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 28 May 2023, 1258UT
SIDC FORECAST 
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 28 May 2023  10CM FLUX: 158 / AP: 013
PREDICTIONS FOR 29 May 2023  10CM FLUX: 158 / AP: 015
PREDICTIONS FOR 30 May 2023  10CM FLUX: 158 / AP: 014

Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity remained at
moderate levels with an impulsive M1.0-class flare, start time 10:21 UTC,
end time 10:55 UTC, peak time 10:36 UTC on May 28th from NOAA AR 3315
(beta-gamma-delta). This region underwent major developed increasing in
area, complexity and number of sunspots, becoming the largest and most
complex active region on the visible solar disc. Isolated low C-class
flaring was produced by NOAA AR 3316 (beta), which shows minor changes, by
NOAA AR 3311 (beta-gamma), which experienced further decay, and by NOAA AR
3314, which evolved into beta-delta magnetic configuration. A C6.2-class
flare was produced by NOAA AR 3312 (beta) which remained small and
relatively simple. NOAA AR 3310 (alpha) underwent further decay and NOAA AR
3313 (alpha) remained stable. Both regions were inactive. The solar flaring
activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next days
with 50% chances for M-class flaring.

Coronal mass ejections: No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs)
were detected in the available coronagraph imagery.


Solar wind: Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and
DSCOVR) Solar wind parameters reflected low density slow solar wind
conditions, which could be related to the nearby passage of the May 25th
south-west CMEs. The solar wind velocity varied in the range of 366 km/s to
524 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was weak with a maximum value
of 5.7 nT and a minimum Bz of -5.8 nT. The B field was predominantly in the
negative sector (directed towards the Sun) with some intervals in the
positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are
expected to be mostly at slow solar wind levels throughout the day with
possible minor influence from nearby passage of May 25th CMEs. Further
enhancements are possible on May 29th and May 30th with the expected
arrival of a high speed stream from a negative polarity coronal hole.

Geomagnetism: The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet
to unsettled. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected over
the next 24 hours with chances for isolated active conditions due to
possible influence from nearby passage of May 25th CMEs. Quiet to active
conditions are expected for May 29th and May 30th with possible isolated
minor storm levels.

Proton flux levels: Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES
proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the
next days.

Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux started above
the 1000 pfu threshold on May 27th and has returned back to nominal levels
on May 28th. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be below
the 1000 pfu threshold in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was
at moderate levels and is expected to remain at moderate level for the day
and then decrease to nominal levels over the next days.





Zdroj : SIDC Ursigram





Předpověď sluneční aktivity pro období : May 26 - June 01, 2023

Zdroj : http://www.asu.cas.cz/~sunwatch




Poslední fotografie ze SOHO / SDO:



Různé barvy snímků prozrazují odlišné vlnové délky - každá
vlnová délka je vyzařována plynem o určité teplotě: oranžová: 80 000 °C,
modrá: 1 000 000 °C, zelená: 1 500 000 °C, hnědá: 2 500 000 °C.

  

    




      He II/Si XI 30,4 nm

      80 000 °C

      EIT 304

    
    





      Fe IX/X 17,1 nm

      1 000 000 °C

      EIT 171

    
    





      Fe XII 19,5 nm

      1 500 000 °C

      EIT 195

    
    





      Fe XV 28,4 nm

      2 500 000 °C

      EIT 284

    
  
  

    




SDO/HMI Continuum


    





SDO/HMI Magnetogram


    





LASCO C2


    




LASCO C3

  










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