SIDC Ursigram
3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.| Source | SIDC (RWC-Belgium) |
| Frequency | Daily |
| Format | Encoded data (ISES) |
| Mail header | SIDC Ursigram |
| SIDC code | meu |
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Latest issue
:Issued: 2026 Oct 12 1231 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # # (RWC Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 61012 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 12 Oct 2026, 1230UT SIDC FORECAST SOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 12 Oct 2026 10CM FLUX: 122 / AP: 021 PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Oct 2026 10CM FLUX: 119 / AP: 020 PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Oct 2026 10CM FLUX: 116 / AP: 014 Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only low-level C-class flares identified. There are currently seven numbered active regions on the solar disk. SIDC Sunspot Group 976 (NOAA Active Region 4549, magnetic type beta-gamma) is the most complex group and is rotating across the west limb. The returning SIDC Sunspot Group 965 (magnetic type beta) rotated on disk from the east limb in the northeast quadrant. SIDC Sunspot Group 981 (NOAA Active Region 4553, magnetic type alpha) emerged on disk in the northeast quadrant, while SIDC Sunspot Group 982 (magnetic type beta) emerged near the central meridian in the southern hemisphere. The solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected and M-class flares likely. Coronal mass ejections: A wide Coronal Mass Ejection (SIDC CME 730) was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery starting from around 23:15 UTC on October 11, directed mainly eastward. The CME is likely associated with dimming observed in SDO/AIA 193 imagery starting from around 22:00 UTC on October 11, from the southeast quadrant. Preliminary analysis indicates a possible glancing blow arrival at Earth late on October 14. Further analysis is ongoing. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. Coronal holes: SIDC Coronal Hole 142, an elongated recurrent mid-latitude coronal hole with negative polarity, continues to reside near the central meridian. An associated high-speed stream may arrive at Earth from later today onwards. Solar wind: Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters reflected the waning influence of the ICME arrival observed on October 10. Speed values gradually decreased from around 600 km/s to around 450 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field values ranged between about 5 nT and 7 nT. The Bz component varied between -4 nT and 2 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field angle was mostly in the negative sector. The solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly perturbed over the next 24 hours, with possible further enhancements due to a possible glancing blow arrival from SIDC CME 729 late on October 12 and the possible arrival of a high-speed stream associated with SIDC Coronal Hole 142. Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions globally and locally were mostly at quiet to unsettled levels over the past 24 hours (NOAA Kp 1 to 3, K BEL 1 to 3). Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next 24 hours, with possible active intervals and a chance for isolated minor storm conditions due to the possible glancing blow arrival from SIDC CME 729 late on October 12 and the possible arrival of a high-speed stream associated with SIDC Coronal Hole 142. Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the 10 pfu threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours. Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 18 and GOES 19 was below the 1000 pfu threshold in the last 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be below the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.
Zdroj : SIDC Ursigram |
Předpověď sluneční aktivity pro období : October 09 - October 15, 2026
Zdroj : http://www.asu.cas.cz/~sunwatch |
Poslední fotografie ze SOHO / SDO:
Různé barvy snímků prozrazují odlišné vlnové délky - každá
vlnová délka je vyzařována plynem o určité teplotě: oranžová: 80 000 °C,
modrá: 1 000 000 °C, zelená: 1 500 000 °C, hnědá: 2 500 000 °C.
He II/Si XI 30,4 nm 80 000 °C EIT 304 |
Fe IX/X 17,1 nm 1 000 000 °C EIT 171 |
Fe XII 19,5 nm 1 500 000 °C EIT 195 |
Fe XV 28,4 nm 2 500 000 °C EIT 284 |
SDO/HMI Continuum |
SDO/HMI Magnetogram |
LASCO C2 |
LASCO C3 |
